SIGNALS
Every call SOTO has made
Calls are registered before the outcome is known. Nothing is edited after registration, and misses stay on the record.
Registered calls (4)
C1: Will Mistral AI name a new enterprise customer or partner by Mar 30, 2027?
Claim. On or before 2027-03-30, Mistral AI will publicly announce a new named enterprise customer or partner that meets at least one disclosed scale criterion (1,000+ employees, a national/public-sector entity, a deal value of $10M USD or more, or a multi-year/multi-country deployment agreement).
Resolution rule. Resolves YES if, between 2026-10-01 and 2027-03-30T23:59:00-07:00, Mistral AI's official blog/press page (mistral.ai) or a named outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, CNBC, TechCrunch, The Information) publishes a dated report naming a new enterprise customer or partner organization not already disclosed before 2026-10-01 (excludes Samsung, ESA, Morocco government, and the Munich hub partners), where the entity or deal meets at least one of: 1,000+ global employees, national/public-sector status, disclosed contract value of $10M USD or more, or a stated multi-year/multi-country deployment. The report must name the organization explicitly and confirm an active commercial or institutional relationship with Mistral. Anything else, including unconfirmed rumors or anonymized references, resolves NO.
Estimate. SOTO 85%; the obvious 82%. Deadline. 2027-03-30T23:59:00-07:00. Registered. Oct 1, 2026, 13:44 PT.
Sources that settle it. mistral.ai/news; Reuters (reuters.com); Bloomberg (bloomberg.com); Financial Times (ft.com); CNBC (cnbc.com); TechCrunch (techcrunch.com); The Information (theinformation.com)
C2: Will ElevenLabs state that Eleven v4 stays at $22 per million characters after Oct 12?
Claim. By Oct 16, 2026, ElevenLabs will have publicly stated, on or before that date, that the Eleven v4 API remains priced at $22 per million characters after Oct 12, 2026.
Resolution rule. Resolves YES only if, on or before 2026-10-16T23:59:00-07:00, ElevenLabs' official pricing page, its official blog, or its verified X account explicitly states that standard Eleven v4 API pricing is $22 per million characters effective after Oct 12, 2026. The statement must reference the standard self-serve API rate, not enterprise, custom, or negotiated pricing, and must not describe a new model, renamed tier, or different per-character rate. Silence, inferred continuity, archived pricing pages without a dated confirmation, or third-party reporting does not qualify. Absence of any such statement by the deadline resolves NO.
Estimate. SOTO 12%; the obvious 35%. Deadline. 2026-10-16T23:59:00-07:00. Registered. Oct 2, 2026, 11:07 PT.
Sources that settle it. https://elevenlabs.io/pricing; https://elevenlabs.io/blog; https://x.com/elevenlabsio
C3: Will OpenAI publish a price for extra Dots usage by Oct 31?
Claim. By October 31, 2026, OpenAI publicly publishes a specific price (dollar amount, rate, or credit cost) for additional Dots usage or for Dots-related compute beyond what existing ChatGPT subscription plans include.
Resolution rule. Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-10-31T23:59:00-07:00, OpenAI's own website, pricing page, or help center publishes a specific numeric price, rate, or credit cost for extra Dots usage or Dots compute beyond stated plan allowances, OR a tier-1 outlet (e.g., The Verge, NYT, WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, TechCrunch) publishes an article quoting or citing that OpenAI-sourced price. The statement must include a concrete figure (e.g., dollars, credits, or per-unit rate), not a vague reference to 'future pricing' or 'paid tiers.' Anything else, including statements made before October 2, 2026, resolves NO.
Estimate. SOTO 6%; the obvious 10%. Deadline. 2026-10-31T23:59:00-07:00. Registered. Oct 2, 2026, 11:07 PT.
Sources that settle it. openai.com/pricing; help.openai.com (OpenAI Help Center); theverge.com; nytimes.com; wsj.com; reuters.com; bloomberg.com; techcrunch.com
C4: Will a model that runs offline on a laptop or phone match the top Artificial Analysis score of Oct 2, 2026 by Apr 2, 2027?
Claim. On or before 2027-04-02, a model that runs fully offline on one consumer laptop or phone (up to 64 GB of memory, no network use at inference) scores at or above 58 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3, the score of the #1 model on that index on 2026-10-02 (Claude Opus 5.5, max with fallback).
Resolution rule. Resolves YES if, on or before 2027-04-02 23:59 Pacific Time, Artificial Analysis (artificialanalysis.ai) publishes an Intelligence Index score of 58 or higher (on index v4.3, or on a later version where the 2026-10-02 leader, Claude Opus 5.5 max with fallback, is re-scored: then the leader's re-scored value) for a model whose weights are publicly downloadable and which has a documented run fully offline on one consumer laptop or phone with up to 64 GB of memory. The documented run may be by Artificial Analysis or a public, reproducible run by anyone. Resolves NO otherwise. Not counted: benchmark results published only by the model's maker, models offered only through an API, quantized variants that Artificial Analysis has not scored, and any index other than Artificial Analysis. The 2026-10-02 reference page is archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20261003030249/https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models.
Estimate. SOTO 8%; the obvious 35%. Deadline. 2027-04-02T23:59:00-07:00. Registered. Oct 3, 2026, 00:17 PT.
Sources that settle it. https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models; https://web.archive.org/web/20261003030249/https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models; https://conway.tech/
Archived rehearsal calls (9): practice calls, unscored
Published Sep 29 before the record opened. Archived, not scored.
S1: Sierra names a customer running proactive agents in production
Claim. Sierra will announce a named enterprise customer running a proactive (not chat-initiated) agent workflow in production by Nov 15, 2026.
Resolution rule. Win: public announcement naming the customer and describing the proactive workflow, by Nov 15.
Estimate. SOTO 35%; the obvious 15%. Deadline. 2026-11-15T23:59:59-08:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026.
Sources that settle it. Sierra blog (https://sierra.ai/blog)
S3: A financial-services customer goes live on Decagon and Plaid
Claim. At least one independently named financial-services customer will report a production workflow completed using the Decagon-Plaid integration by Oct 29, 2026.
Resolution rule. Win: named customer, specified integration, completed authenticated financial-service workflow, by Oct 29.
Estimate. SOTO 20%; the obvious 10%. Deadline. 2026-10-29T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026.
Sources that settle it. Decagon blog (https://decagon.ai/blog); Plaid announcements
S4: October ends without a $500M round from the ten tracked companies
Claim. No tracked AI application-layer company (Sierra, Decagon, Harvey, Anysphere, ElevenLabs, Perplexity, Mercor, LangChain, Vercel, Supabase) will announce a new funding round of $500M or more during October 2026.
Resolution rule. Loses the moment any tracked company announces a closed $500M+ round in October; wins if Oct 31 ends quiet.
Estimate. SOTO 45%; the obvious 35%. Deadline. 2026-11-01T23:59:59-08:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026.
Sources that settle it. Funding announcements from the ten tracked companies
S5: LangChain unveils a new named product line at Interrupt London
Claim. At Interrupt London on October 13, 2026, LangChain announces a new named product line beyond LangSmith and LangGraph.
Resolution rule. Win: new named LangChain product line at Interrupt London, Oct 13.
Estimate. SOTO 30%; the obvious 40%. Deadline. 2026-10-15T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026.
Sources that settle it. Interrupt London event page (https://interrupt.langchain.com/london); Interrupt London agenda (https://interrupt.langchain.com/london/agenda); LangChain blog (https://www.langchain.com/blog)
S6: Vercel's agent infrastructure goes GA, with pricing, at Ship
Claim. At Vercel Ship 26 on October 15, 2026, Vercel's agentic-infrastructure announcement reaches general availability with published pricing - not a preview, beta, or waitlist.
Resolution rule. Win: Ship 26 agentic infra GA with public pricing by Oct 17 - preview or waitlist loses.
Estimate. SOTO 40%; the obvious 30%. Deadline. 2026-10-17T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026.
Sources that settle it. Vercel Sandbox pricing page (https://vercel.com/docs/sandbox/pricing); Vercel changelog (https://vercel.com/changelog)
S7: Perplexity closes a round at $30B or more by Oct 13
Claim. By October 13, 2026, Perplexity announces a closed funding round at a valuation of $30B or more.
Resolution rule. Win: closed $30B+ Perplexity round announced by Oct 13; rumors do not count.
Estimate. SOTO 25%; the obvious 10%. Deadline. 2026-10-13T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026.
Sources that settle it. Announcements by Perplexity or its investors; Tier-1 press reporting a closed round
S8: Decagon names another enterprise customer or partner
Claim. Decagon will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale by 2027-03-29.
Resolution rule. TRUE if Decagon announces another named enterprise customer or partnership by 2027-03-29.
Estimate. SOTO 35%; the obvious 20%. Deadline. 2027-03-29T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026. Withdrawn.
Sources that settle it. Decagon blog (https://decagon.ai/blog)
S9: ElevenLabs raises again or takes a formal IPO step
Claim. ElevenLabs will announce a new funding round or a formal IPO step (filing, banker mandate, or a stated listing timeline) by 2027-09-30.
Resolution rule. TRUE on a new funding round or formal IPO step announced by 2027-09-30.
Estimate. SOTO 30%; the obvious 20%. Deadline. 2027-09-30T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026. Withdrawn.
Sources that settle it. ElevenLabs announcements and filings
S10: Sierra names another enterprise customer or partner
Claim. Sierra will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale by 2027-03-30.
Resolution rule. TRUE if Sierra announces another named enterprise customer or partnership by 2027-03-30.
Estimate. SOTO 35%; the obvious 20%. Deadline. 2027-03-30T23:59:59-07:00. Registered. On or before Sep 29, 2026. Withdrawn.
Sources that settle it. Sierra blog (https://sierra.ai/blog)