ARCHIVED REHEARSAL CALL S4 · NOT SCORED
October ends without a $500M round from the ten tracked companies
Archived, not scored. This call was published before the record opened. Its outcome stays outside the scored record and is published as information only.
Claim. No tracked AI application-layer company (Sierra, Decagon, Harvey, Anysphere, ElevenLabs, Perplexity, Mercor, LangChain, Vercel, Supabase) will announce a new funding round of $500M or more during October 2026.
Resolution rule. Loses the moment any tracked company announces a closed $500M+ round in October; wins if Oct 31 ends quiet.
Estimate. SOTO’s estimate was 45%; the obvious estimate was 35%.
Deadline. 2026-11-01T23:59:59-08:00