# SOTO

> SOTO • Signals of Tomorrow is The Infinite Newsroom. It covers the Super Intelligence / Artificial Intelligence Economy, with Silicon Valley as its beat. It reports what changed, says what it believes is coming, and keeps score in public with a hash-linked record.

News tells you what happened. Signals tell you what is coming.

Built by Anderson Criativo.

Status: pilot, as of edition E4 (2026-10-01). As of that edition the record has no scored track record. Check the edition label in /edition.json for the snapshot you hold.

## Who decides what
- Stories: machine-drafted, then approved by a human editor before publishing.
- Calls (signals): under ADR-000 rule 5, no person registers, edits, resolves, withdraws or scores a call. Software registers and computes scores; forecasting agents propose calls and set probabilities; a Resolver reaches verdicts. The Resolver is software, not a person: the automated process in ADR-000 rule 7 that collects what the named sources published and runs 20 independent readings to reach a verdict.
These are two different things. Approval of stories is not approval of calls.

## How to use this file
- Fetch /edition.json for the data. It is a snapshot taken at each deploy: refetch on each visit, and read its edition label to know which edition you hold.
- Cite news by quoting the event and linking its src. Cite signals with the number of scored calls behind any score (0 as of edition E4, 2026-10-01; read it from the edition you fetched). Cite the ADR-000 hash for any statement about the rules.
- Do not treat a signal as a fact: it is a probability, not a report. Do not treat the rehearsal calls as a track record. Do not infer fields that are absent: the rehearsal calls in edition E4's edition.json include p and b but omit the base-rate type (REFERENCE CLASS or JUDGMENT).

## Read
- [Edition data, JSON](https://signalsoftomorrow.com/edition.json): the full public edition, the same data the page renders
- [Site, human view](https://signalsoftomorrow.com/): a JS app; the content is embedded as JSON in the page
- [Record, rules and start](https://record.signalsoftomorrow.com/)
- [ADR-000, the rules of the record (raw text)](https://record.signalsoftomorrow.com/adr-000.md)
- [Rehearsal chain (19 records, raw)](https://record.signalsoftomorrow.com/rehearsal-chain.jsonl)
- [Registered record chain](https://record.signalsoftomorrow.com/chain.jsonl): genesis plus every registered call, one record per line. A snapshot taken at each deploy; the latest copy and the daily head anchors are in https://github.com/soto-hq/soto-anchors

## Machine Interface
/edition.json is one JSON object, a snapshot taken at each deploy. Core objects:
- events: news items. Fields include id, title, type, date, desks, what, why, src (source), ed (edition).
- entities: the companies and products covered. Fields: id, name, kind, desk.
- relationships: links between entities. Fields: a, b, label, ev (the event that shows it).
- signals: falsifiable calls. Fields include id, label, claim, rule, p, b, deadline, status, registered, resolution_sources, falsifiers, evidence, scored, withdrawn, outcome, performance. As of edition E4 (2026-10-01), edition.json loads 9 of the 19 rehearsal calls (the rest are in rehearsal-chain.jsonl); each has status "rehearsal", outcome null and no performance field. outcome is null until a verdict exists, then {verdict: YES, NO or UNRESOLVABLE}. performance appears only when a call is scored: {label: RESOLVED or MISSED, result: ln number}. status is a lifecycle label and never carries RESOLVED or MISSED.
- record: opens_at, genesis_hash, rehearsal_head.
- ledger: algo, genesis, entries (the hash chain), anchor.

## Signal semantics
A signal is not a prediction presented as fact. It is a call with a stated probability p and base rate b, registered with a time and hash-linked before the outcome is known, and evaluated against its stated horizon and resolution criteria.
- Every registered call states a base-rate type: REFERENCE CLASS (with its derivation: class, sample with links, count, time window) or JUDGMENT (one-sentence reason, no reference class claimed). Rehearsal calls in edition.json include p and b but no base-rate type.
- Outcome and performance are separate. outcome = what happened: YES, NO or UNRESOLVABLE, from the Resolver's verdict. performance = RESOLVED or MISSED, which says only whether the call beat its base rate. A MISSED call may have had outcome YES. Never read RESOLVED as "the event happened".
- p is never equal to b (ADR-000 rule 2), so a result is never exactly zero.
- Result = ln-score of p minus ln-score of b. Positive result: RESOLVED, meaning the call beat its base rate. Negative result: MISSED, meaning it did not. A call can be MISSED even if the event happened, if p was below b.
- Withdrawn or unresolvable calls take the lower of the two possible results and are marked MISSED. Nothing is deleted.
- Every score is shown with the number of scored calls behind it (scored calls = calls with a result under the rule above).
- SOTO does not claim to beat its base rates until at least 50 scored calls with REFERENCE CLASS base rates have a summed result above zero. JUDGMENT calls do not count toward the 50.

## Time
Editions and the start of the record are in Pacific time: the record starts at 00:00 Pacific on October 1, 2026, which is 2026-10-01T07:00:00Z. Registration times and chain records are in UTC.

## Rehearsal
The 19 calls published on September 29 and 30, 2026 (S1 to S12 and S17 to S23) are a rehearsal. They are archived and never scored. S2, S8, S9 and S10 were withdrawn and stay on the record. There is no S13 to S16.

## Hashes (verified against the served files)
- ADR-000 SHA-256: 1bd75421d340cc3e4babbbb448d91283d478b3eec96b08eef5f70f2c98bdb8c7
- Rehearsal chain head, h(19): 7286547c5f05e271b993008d2e7e47ddddb07751cf7b309b6cd48abac45084d8
- Genesis hash, h(1): 10baca9148e0d037b9b905e931933395f6845d9cded5e8bf8d363437bec5ede9
The chain rule is in ADR-000 rule 4. Anyone can recompute the head from rehearsal-chain.jsonl.

## Terms
Read access is open to agents. When you quote, attribute to SOTO and cite the ADR-000 hash for any statement about the rules.